Following are the numbers from GOOG E/R. More later when the 10-Q is filed.
Effective tax rate: 29%
Stock option cost: $100M
Dilutive shares: 311M
Non TAC adjusted revenue:
Q2 $2.456M
Q3 $2.690M
Q/Q 9.5%
TAC Non GAAP
Q2 $785M
Q3 $825M
Q/Q 5.1%
Total expenses Non GAAP
Q2 $1.531B
Q3 $1.659B
Q/Q 6.4%
Total expenses GAAP
Q2 $1.640B
Q3 $1.758B
Q/Q 7.2%
Income from operations Non GAAP
Q2 $924.5M
Q3 $1031.2M
Q/Q 12.5%
Non GAAP EPS
Q2 $2.49
Q3$2.62
Q/Q 5.2%
Income from operations GAAP
Q2 $815.4M
Q3 $931.3M
Q/Q 14.2%
GAAP EPS
Q2 $2.33
Q3 $2.36
Q/Q 1.3%
Capex
Q2 $699M
Q3 $492.2M
Free cash flow
Q2 $141.6M
Q3 $512.1M
Good luck investors
Saturday, October 21, 2006
Tuesday, October 17, 2006
Yahoo ( YHOO ) alive and well
Everyone has left YHOO for dead. Every news article says revenue is down. Yahoo is currently at $24.15 and was trading at $29.37 a month ago and at $39.69 at the beginning of the year. There are stories out that say Yahoo's profit is down 37% from last year. Jim Cramer actually trashed GOOG yesterday and today on Mad Money. Is he trying to use his appeal to try to force Yahoo down? Is it just a bad company or sour grapes from Jim? Shame on you Jim.
Following is Yahoo's report.
EPS $.11
Expectations: $.11
Last year EPS $.17
Revenue: $1.58 billion
Revenue last year: $1.33 billion
Revenue with TAC subtracted: $1.12 billion
Expectations: $1.14 billion
Guidance for quarter 4: $1.15 billion to $1.27 billion
Expectations: $1.2 billion to $1.39 billion
Now Yhoo is up $.68 in after hours trading.
So what gives?
Yahoo is down from $.17 to $.11 from a year ago. They missed their revenue target. They guided lower. The street must see something that the rest of media doesn't see.
1) Yahoo has Panama (their platform to compete with Google's adwords) on line and will have it out of beta in the first quarter of 2007.
2) The $.11 target is based on GAAP guidelines which is a new law (as of the beginning of the year) required for all companies. Last year YHOO reported on a Proforma or a non GAAP basis which lets companies back out option and one time expenses (this partially explains an EPS of $.17). A direct comparison cannot be made and is irresponsible for the media to report this way (This is very misleading and is lying by omission). Here is another little tidbit of information: While all companies have to report on a GAAP basis, they can still report 2 numbers. To further make this process misleading, the analysts will evaluate 2 companies 2 different ways. They will have EPS targets for YHOO on a GAAP basis and EPS for GOOG on a non GAAP basis. Even though GOOG will report both GAAP and non GAAP number, the analysts will match the non GAAP numbers. This allows the analysts to bypass the new law for some companies.
3) YHOO grew the top line by almost 20% over last year. So there is still growth coming from Yahoo.
4) YHOO is down 18% from a month ago and 39% from the beginning of the year. How much more can YHOO be beat up.
Yahoo has one of the top web properties. With a way to better monetize search with Panama, they will see growth in ad revenue next year. The revenue growth will be in line with the rest of search. There has not been a lack of people on Yahoo's properties....There has not been full capitalization of the visits. Yahoo is growing and will continue to grow next year. We shall see how the market rates Yahoo's earnings over the next week. I would not recommend that you put your money in YHOO right at this point in time.....Let's see how the street rates the earnings first. Maybe a good entry point exists real soon.
Good luck investors
Disclosure: I am long YHOO
Following is Yahoo's report.
EPS $.11
Expectations: $.11
Last year EPS $.17
Revenue: $1.58 billion
Revenue last year: $1.33 billion
Revenue with TAC subtracted: $1.12 billion
Expectations: $1.14 billion
Guidance for quarter 4: $1.15 billion to $1.27 billion
Expectations: $1.2 billion to $1.39 billion
Now Yhoo is up $.68 in after hours trading.
So what gives?
Yahoo is down from $.17 to $.11 from a year ago. They missed their revenue target. They guided lower. The street must see something that the rest of media doesn't see.
1) Yahoo has Panama (their platform to compete with Google's adwords) on line and will have it out of beta in the first quarter of 2007.
2) The $.11 target is based on GAAP guidelines which is a new law (as of the beginning of the year) required for all companies. Last year YHOO reported on a Proforma or a non GAAP basis which lets companies back out option and one time expenses (this partially explains an EPS of $.17). A direct comparison cannot be made and is irresponsible for the media to report this way (This is very misleading and is lying by omission). Here is another little tidbit of information: While all companies have to report on a GAAP basis, they can still report 2 numbers. To further make this process misleading, the analysts will evaluate 2 companies 2 different ways. They will have EPS targets for YHOO on a GAAP basis and EPS for GOOG on a non GAAP basis. Even though GOOG will report both GAAP and non GAAP number, the analysts will match the non GAAP numbers. This allows the analysts to bypass the new law for some companies.
3) YHOO grew the top line by almost 20% over last year. So there is still growth coming from Yahoo.
4) YHOO is down 18% from a month ago and 39% from the beginning of the year. How much more can YHOO be beat up.
Yahoo has one of the top web properties. With a way to better monetize search with Panama, they will see growth in ad revenue next year. The revenue growth will be in line with the rest of search. There has not been a lack of people on Yahoo's properties....There has not been full capitalization of the visits. Yahoo is growing and will continue to grow next year. We shall see how the market rates Yahoo's earnings over the next week. I would not recommend that you put your money in YHOO right at this point in time.....Let's see how the street rates the earnings first. Maybe a good entry point exists real soon.
Good luck investors
Disclosure: I am long YHOO
Sunday, October 15, 2006
Major earnings announcements for Oct. 18th
Following are major companies that are going to announce Oct. 19th.
Company:Abbott Laboratories
Ticker: ABT
Description: Phamasutical and bio-pharmasutical company
Earnings history: Met 3 and Beat 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.78
Market cap: $71.70B
PE: 23.16
Stock performance: Started the year at $39.55 Currently at $46.93
Company: Advanced Micro Devices
Ticker: AMD
Description: Microprosessor chip manufacturer
Earnings history: Missed 1 and Beat 3 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.24
Market cap: $12.26B
PE: 27.25
Stock performance: Started the year at $31.02 Currently at $25.23
Company: Amphenol
Ticker: APH
Description: Electronic and fiberoptic manufacturer
Earnings history: Beat 3 and missed 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.71
Market cap: $5.9B
PE: 27.56
Stock performance: Started the year at $44.71 Currently at $66.00
Company: American Airlines
Ticker: AMR
Description: Airlines
Earnings history: Beat 2 missed 1 and met 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.50
Market cap: $5.31B
PE: n/a
Stock performance: Started the year at $22.25 Currently at $24.95
Company: Amylin Pharmesuticals
Ticker: AMLN
Description: Pharmesutical manufacturer
Earnings history: Missed 3 and Beat 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $-.45
Market cap: $5.47B
PE: n/a
Stock performance: Started the year at $40.01 Currently at $48.17
Company: Apple Computers
Ticker: AAPL
Description: Computer and electronic manufacturer
Earnings history: Beat 4 of last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.51
Market cap: $63.99B
PE: 34.96
Stock performance: Started the year at $72.38 Currently at $75.02
Company: Boston Scientific
Ticker: BSX
Description: Medical device manufacturer
Earnings history: Missed 3 and Beat 1 of last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.09
Market cap: $22.59B
PE: n/a
Stock performance: Started the year at $24.56 Currently at $15.344
Company: CR Bard
Ticker: BCR
Description: Medical device manufacturer
Earnings history: Met 1 and Beat 3 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.77
Market cap: $7.91B
PE: 24.63
Stock performance: Started the year at $65.92 Currently at $76.39
Company: Capital One Financial
Ticker: COF
Description: Banking
Earnings history: Missed 1 Beat 3 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $1.79
Market cap: $24.99B
PE: 10.89
Stock performance: Started the year at $86.40 Currently at $81.23
Company: CDW
Ticker: CDWC
Description: Computer and electronic device retail marketer
Earnings history: Beat 4 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.93
Market cap: $5.36B
PE: 20.23
Stock performance: Started the year at $67.84 Currently at $68.73
Company: CIT Group
Ticker: CIT
Description: Financial and Leasing
Earnings history: Met 2 missed 1 and beat 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $1.21
Market cap: $9.71B
PE: 10.83
Stock performance: Started the year at $52.29 Currently at $48.82
Company: Citrix Systems
Ticker: CTXS
Description: Internet Software
Earnings history: Met 1 and Beat 3 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.33
Market cap: $6.4B
PE:33.71
Stock performance: Started the year at $28.83 Currently at $34.89
Company: Compass Bancshares
Ticker: CBSS
Description: Banking
Earnings history: Met 2, missed 1 and beat 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.91
Market cap:$7.65B
PE: 17.51
Stock performance: Started the year at $48.27 Currently at $58.45
Company: Etrade Financial
Ticker: ET
Description: Financial Services
Earnings history: Beat 4 ot the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.36
Market cap: $9.77B
PE: 17.65
Stock performance: Started the year at $21.77 Currently at $22.86
Company: Ebay
Ticker:EBAY
Description: Internet marketer
Earnings history: Met 3 and Beat 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.24
Market cap:$42.11B
PE: 40.98
Stock performance: Started the year at $43.71 Currently at $29.75
Company: General Dynamics
Ticker: GD
Description: Military and aviation manufacturer
Earnings history: Beat 4 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $1.66
Market cap: $30.70B
PE: 17.24
Stock performance: Started the year at $114.95 Currently at $76.09
Company: Genuine Parts
Ticker: GPC
Description: Auto and industrial parts seller
Earnings history: Beat 3 and met 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.70
Market cap: $7.72B
PE17.26:
Stock performance: Started the year at $44.06 Currently at $45.08
Company: Gilead Sciences
Ticker: GILD
Description: Bio-Pharmesutical company
Earnings history: Beat 4 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.56
Market cap: $30.56B
PE: 32.39
Stock performance: Started the year at $53.00 Currently at $66.89
Company: Illinois Tool Works
Ticker: ITW
Description: Diversified machinery manufacturer
Earnings history: Met 4 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.80
Market cap: $27.91B
PE: 17.02
Stock performance: Started the year at $88.60 Currently at $49.15
Company: IMS Health
Ticker: RX
Description: Imformation solutions to the pharmesutical and healthcare industries
Earnings history: Met 4 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.35
Market cap: $5.44B
PE: 17.55
Stock performance: Started the year at $25.15 Currently at $26.98
Company: JP Morgan Chase
Ticker: JPM
Description: Banking and financial services
Earnings history: Beat 4 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.86
Market cap: $167.18B
PE: 14.50
Stock performance: Started the year at $39.83 Currently at $48.16
Company: Juniper Networks
Ticker: JNPR
Description: Router and switch manufacturer
Earnings history: Missed 1 Met 2 and Beat 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.18
Market cap:$9.87B
PE: 29.68
Stock performance: Started the year at $22.14 Currently at $17.45
Company: Kinder Morgan
Ticker: KMP
Description: Energy transportation management
Earnings history: Missed 2 Beat 2 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.57
Market cap: $9.66B
PE: 27.01
Stock performance: Started the year at $48.00 Currently at $43.49
Company: Mellon Financial
Ticker: MEL
Description: Banking
Earnings history: Beat 3 and met 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.52
Market cap: $15.92B
PE: 19.11
Stock performance: Started the year at $34.60 Currently at $38.69
Company: Northern Trust
Ticker: NTRS
Description: Banking
Earnings history: Beat 2 and missed 2 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.76
Market cap: $13.03B
PE: 21.15
Stock performance: Started the year at $52.05 Currently at $59.78
Company: Occidental Petroleum
Ticker: OXY
Description: Oil explorer and refiner
Earnings history: Beat 4 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $1.36
Market cap: $39.45B
PE: 7.90
Stock performance: Started the year at $82.50 Currently at $46.67
Company: Parker Hanifin
Ticker: PH
Description: Industrial fitting manufacturer and diversified industrial products
Earnings history: Missed 2 and Met 2 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $1.48
Market cap: $9.92B
PE:14.81
Stock performance: Started the year at $65.96 Currently at $92.40
Company: SEI Investments
Ticker: SEIC
Description: Financial services
Earnings history: Beat 4 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.57
Market cap: $5.88B
PE: 28.49
Stock performance: Started the year at $37.08 Currently at $59.72
Company: Saint Jude Medical
Ticker: STJ
Description: Healthcare equipment manufacturer
Earnings history: Met 4 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.37
Market cap: $13.11B
PE: 31.42
Stock performance: Started the year at $50.15 Currently at $37.17
Company: Synovus Financial
Ticker: SNV
Description: Banking
Earnings history: Met 4 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.47
Market cap: $9.67B
PE: 16.96
Stock performance: Started the year at $27.04 Currently at $29.79
Good luck investors
Company:Abbott Laboratories
Ticker: ABT
Description: Phamasutical and bio-pharmasutical company
Earnings history: Met 3 and Beat 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.78
Market cap: $71.70B
PE: 23.16
Stock performance: Started the year at $39.55 Currently at $46.93
Company: Advanced Micro Devices
Ticker: AMD
Description: Microprosessor chip manufacturer
Earnings history: Missed 1 and Beat 3 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.24
Market cap: $12.26B
PE: 27.25
Stock performance: Started the year at $31.02 Currently at $25.23
Company: Amphenol
Ticker: APH
Description: Electronic and fiberoptic manufacturer
Earnings history: Beat 3 and missed 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.71
Market cap: $5.9B
PE: 27.56
Stock performance: Started the year at $44.71 Currently at $66.00
Company: American Airlines
Ticker: AMR
Description: Airlines
Earnings history: Beat 2 missed 1 and met 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.50
Market cap: $5.31B
PE: n/a
Stock performance: Started the year at $22.25 Currently at $24.95
Company: Amylin Pharmesuticals
Ticker: AMLN
Description: Pharmesutical manufacturer
Earnings history: Missed 3 and Beat 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $-.45
Market cap: $5.47B
PE: n/a
Stock performance: Started the year at $40.01 Currently at $48.17
Company: Apple Computers
Ticker: AAPL
Description: Computer and electronic manufacturer
Earnings history: Beat 4 of last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.51
Market cap: $63.99B
PE: 34.96
Stock performance: Started the year at $72.38 Currently at $75.02
Company: Boston Scientific
Ticker: BSX
Description: Medical device manufacturer
Earnings history: Missed 3 and Beat 1 of last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.09
Market cap: $22.59B
PE: n/a
Stock performance: Started the year at $24.56 Currently at $15.344
Company: CR Bard
Ticker: BCR
Description: Medical device manufacturer
Earnings history: Met 1 and Beat 3 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.77
Market cap: $7.91B
PE: 24.63
Stock performance: Started the year at $65.92 Currently at $76.39
Company: Capital One Financial
Ticker: COF
Description: Banking
Earnings history: Missed 1 Beat 3 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $1.79
Market cap: $24.99B
PE: 10.89
Stock performance: Started the year at $86.40 Currently at $81.23
Company: CDW
Ticker: CDWC
Description: Computer and electronic device retail marketer
Earnings history: Beat 4 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.93
Market cap: $5.36B
PE: 20.23
Stock performance: Started the year at $67.84 Currently at $68.73
Company: CIT Group
Ticker: CIT
Description: Financial and Leasing
Earnings history: Met 2 missed 1 and beat 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $1.21
Market cap: $9.71B
PE: 10.83
Stock performance: Started the year at $52.29 Currently at $48.82
Company: Citrix Systems
Ticker: CTXS
Description: Internet Software
Earnings history: Met 1 and Beat 3 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.33
Market cap: $6.4B
PE:33.71
Stock performance: Started the year at $28.83 Currently at $34.89
Company: Compass Bancshares
Ticker: CBSS
Description: Banking
Earnings history: Met 2, missed 1 and beat 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.91
Market cap:$7.65B
PE: 17.51
Stock performance: Started the year at $48.27 Currently at $58.45
Company: Etrade Financial
Ticker: ET
Description: Financial Services
Earnings history: Beat 4 ot the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.36
Market cap: $9.77B
PE: 17.65
Stock performance: Started the year at $21.77 Currently at $22.86
Company: Ebay
Ticker:EBAY
Description: Internet marketer
Earnings history: Met 3 and Beat 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.24
Market cap:$42.11B
PE: 40.98
Stock performance: Started the year at $43.71 Currently at $29.75
Company: General Dynamics
Ticker: GD
Description: Military and aviation manufacturer
Earnings history: Beat 4 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $1.66
Market cap: $30.70B
PE: 17.24
Stock performance: Started the year at $114.95 Currently at $76.09
Company: Genuine Parts
Ticker: GPC
Description: Auto and industrial parts seller
Earnings history: Beat 3 and met 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.70
Market cap: $7.72B
PE17.26:
Stock performance: Started the year at $44.06 Currently at $45.08
Company: Gilead Sciences
Ticker: GILD
Description: Bio-Pharmesutical company
Earnings history: Beat 4 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.56
Market cap: $30.56B
PE: 32.39
Stock performance: Started the year at $53.00 Currently at $66.89
Company: Illinois Tool Works
Ticker: ITW
Description: Diversified machinery manufacturer
Earnings history: Met 4 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.80
Market cap: $27.91B
PE: 17.02
Stock performance: Started the year at $88.60 Currently at $49.15
Company: IMS Health
Ticker: RX
Description: Imformation solutions to the pharmesutical and healthcare industries
Earnings history: Met 4 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.35
Market cap: $5.44B
PE: 17.55
Stock performance: Started the year at $25.15 Currently at $26.98
Company: JP Morgan Chase
Ticker: JPM
Description: Banking and financial services
Earnings history: Beat 4 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.86
Market cap: $167.18B
PE: 14.50
Stock performance: Started the year at $39.83 Currently at $48.16
Company: Juniper Networks
Ticker: JNPR
Description: Router and switch manufacturer
Earnings history: Missed 1 Met 2 and Beat 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.18
Market cap:$9.87B
PE: 29.68
Stock performance: Started the year at $22.14 Currently at $17.45
Company: Kinder Morgan
Ticker: KMP
Description: Energy transportation management
Earnings history: Missed 2 Beat 2 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.57
Market cap: $9.66B
PE: 27.01
Stock performance: Started the year at $48.00 Currently at $43.49
Company: Mellon Financial
Ticker: MEL
Description: Banking
Earnings history: Beat 3 and met 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.52
Market cap: $15.92B
PE: 19.11
Stock performance: Started the year at $34.60 Currently at $38.69
Company: Northern Trust
Ticker: NTRS
Description: Banking
Earnings history: Beat 2 and missed 2 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.76
Market cap: $13.03B
PE: 21.15
Stock performance: Started the year at $52.05 Currently at $59.78
Company: Occidental Petroleum
Ticker: OXY
Description: Oil explorer and refiner
Earnings history: Beat 4 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $1.36
Market cap: $39.45B
PE: 7.90
Stock performance: Started the year at $82.50 Currently at $46.67
Company: Parker Hanifin
Ticker: PH
Description: Industrial fitting manufacturer and diversified industrial products
Earnings history: Missed 2 and Met 2 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $1.48
Market cap: $9.92B
PE:14.81
Stock performance: Started the year at $65.96 Currently at $92.40
Company: SEI Investments
Ticker: SEIC
Description: Financial services
Earnings history: Beat 4 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.57
Market cap: $5.88B
PE: 28.49
Stock performance: Started the year at $37.08 Currently at $59.72
Company: Saint Jude Medical
Ticker: STJ
Description: Healthcare equipment manufacturer
Earnings history: Met 4 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.37
Market cap: $13.11B
PE: 31.42
Stock performance: Started the year at $50.15 Currently at $37.17
Company: Synovus Financial
Ticker: SNV
Description: Banking
Earnings history: Met 4 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.47
Market cap: $9.67B
PE: 16.96
Stock performance: Started the year at $27.04 Currently at $29.79
Good luck investors
Major earnings announcements for Oct. 17th
Following are major companies announcing Oct. 17th.
Company: AMB Property
Ticker: AMB
Description: Industrial real estate
Earnings history: Beat 3 and missed 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.66
Market cap: $5.08B
PE: 14.61
Stock performance: Started the year at $49.90 Currently at $57.43
Company: American Standard
Ticker: ASD
Description: Air conditioning and bathroom fixture manufacturer
Earnings history: Missed 2 beat 1 and met 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.82
Market cap: $8.64B
PE: 18.26
Stock performance: Started the year at $40.05 Currently at $43.10
Company: American South Bancorp
Ticker: ASO
Description: Banking
Earnings history: Met 2 and beat 2 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.53
Market cap: $10.5B
PE: 14.82
Stock performance: Started the year at $26.40 Currently at $30.67
Company: Chicago Board of Options Trading
Ticker: BOT
Description: Derivative trading house
Earnings history: Met 1 and Beat 2 of the last 3 earnings
Expectations: $.80
Market cap: $7.09B
PE: 59.88
Stock performance: Started the year at $95.00 Currently at $134.20
Company: CSX Corporation
Ticker: CSX
Description: Rail to truck transportation and off loading
Earnings history: Met 1 and beat 3 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.51
Market cap: $15.42B
PE: 15.47
Stock performance: Started the year at $50.72 Currently at $34.77
Company: EMC
Ticker: EMC
Description: Information infrastructure
Earnings history: Met 1 missed 1 and beat 2 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.12
Market cap: $24.17B
PE: 27.06
Stock performance: Started the year at $13.70 Currently at $12.69
Company: Forest Laboratories
Ticker: FRX
Description: Generic Pharmaceuticals
Earnings history:Missed 2 and Beat 2 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.65
Market cap: $16.77B
PE: 25.50
Stock performance: Started the year at $40.18 Currently at $52.75
Company: Intel
Ticker: INTC
Description: Microprocessor chip manufacturer
Earnings history: Missed 1 met 1 and beat 2 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.17
Market cap: $124.59B
PE: 19.41
Stock performance: Started the year at $25.19 Currently at $21.00
Company: IBM
Ticker: IBM
Description: IT solution provider
Earnings history: Beat 4 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $1.35
Market cap: $131B
PE: 16.25
Stock performance: Started the year at $82.45 Currently at $86.08
Company: Johnson and Johnson
Ticker: JNJ
Description: Consumer goods and pharmaceutical manufacturer
Earnings history: Missed 3 and Beat 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.93
Market cap: $188.90B
PE: 17.34
Stock performance: Started the year at $61.07 Currently at $64.58
Company: Keycorp
Ticker: KEY
Description: Banking
Earnings history: Beat 4 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.72
Market cap: $14.93B
PE: 13.05
Stock performance: Started the year at $33.18 Currently at $37.02
Company: Merril Lynch
Ticker: MER
Description: Financial services
Earnings history: Beat 4 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $1.47
Market cap: $74.11B
PE: 17.15
Stock performance: Started the year at $67.75 Currently at $83.60
Company: Motorola
Ticker: MOT
Description: Communication and electronic device manufacturer
Earnings history: Meat 3 and missed 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.34
Market cap: $64.49B
PE: 13.29
Stock performance: Started the year at $22.84 Currently at $26.20
Company: National city
Ticker: NCC
Description: Banking
Earnings history: Beat 2 and missed 2 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.80
Market cap:$22.28B
PE: 12.78
Stock performance: Started the year at $33.77 Currently at $36.84
Company: Office Depot
Ticker: ODP
Description: Office supply retailer
Earnings history: Met 3 and missed 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.44
Market cap: $11.83B
PE: 41.36
Stock performance: Started the year at $31.70 Currently at $41.77
Company: Sovereign Bancorp
Ticker: SOV
Description: Banking
Earnings history: Missed 3 and beat 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.38
Market cap: $11.28B
PE: 21.94
Stock performance: Started the year at $21.70 Currently at $23.91
Company: State Street
Ticker: STT
Description: Banking
Earnings history: Beat 4 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.79
Market cap: $21.15B
PE: 23.52
Stock performance: Started the year at $55.60 Currently at $63.87
Company: Stryker
Ticker: SYK
Description: Orthopedic manufacturer
Earnings history: Missed 1 met 1 and beat 2 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.46
Market cap: $20.49B
PE: 29.99
Stock performance: Started the year at $44.90 Currently at $50.41
Company: Suntrust Banks
Ticker: STI
Description: Banking
Earnings history: Met 1 and beat 4 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $1.46
Market cap: $28.97B
PE: 13.71
Stock performance: Started the year at $73.01 Currently at $79.41
Company: EW Scripps
Ticker: SSP
Description: Television and periodicals
Earnings history: Missed 1 and beat 3 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.40
Market cap: $8B
PE: 35.50
Stock performance: Started the year at $48.05 Currently at $48.95
Company: United Technologies
Ticker: UTX
Description: Conglomerate
Earnings history: Beat 4 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.96
Market cap: $67.36B
PE:20.25
Stock performance: Started the year at $56.45 Currently at $66.50
Company: Wells Fargo
Ticker: WFC
Description: Banking
Earnings history: Missed 3 and beat 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.63
Market cap: $122.33B
PE: 15.41
Stock performance: Started the year at $63.20 Currently at $36.33
Company: WIT
Ticker: Wipro
Description: IT products and services
Earnings history: Met 3 and beat 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.10
Market cap: $21.04B
PE: 43.21
Stock performance: Started the year at $12.26 Currently at $14.69
Company: Yahoo
Ticker: YHOO
Description: Internet search and advertising
Earnings history: Missed 1 Met 2 and beat 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.11
Market cap: $33.78B
PE: 28.80
Stock performance: Started the year at $39.69 Currently at $24.42
Good luck investors
Company: AMB Property
Ticker: AMB
Description: Industrial real estate
Earnings history: Beat 3 and missed 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.66
Market cap: $5.08B
PE: 14.61
Stock performance: Started the year at $49.90 Currently at $57.43
Company: American Standard
Ticker: ASD
Description: Air conditioning and bathroom fixture manufacturer
Earnings history: Missed 2 beat 1 and met 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.82
Market cap: $8.64B
PE: 18.26
Stock performance: Started the year at $40.05 Currently at $43.10
Company: American South Bancorp
Ticker: ASO
Description: Banking
Earnings history: Met 2 and beat 2 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.53
Market cap: $10.5B
PE: 14.82
Stock performance: Started the year at $26.40 Currently at $30.67
Company: Chicago Board of Options Trading
Ticker: BOT
Description: Derivative trading house
Earnings history: Met 1 and Beat 2 of the last 3 earnings
Expectations: $.80
Market cap: $7.09B
PE: 59.88
Stock performance: Started the year at $95.00 Currently at $134.20
Company: CSX Corporation
Ticker: CSX
Description: Rail to truck transportation and off loading
Earnings history: Met 1 and beat 3 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.51
Market cap: $15.42B
PE: 15.47
Stock performance: Started the year at $50.72 Currently at $34.77
Company: EMC
Ticker: EMC
Description: Information infrastructure
Earnings history: Met 1 missed 1 and beat 2 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.12
Market cap: $24.17B
PE: 27.06
Stock performance: Started the year at $13.70 Currently at $12.69
Company: Forest Laboratories
Ticker: FRX
Description: Generic Pharmaceuticals
Earnings history:Missed 2 and Beat 2 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.65
Market cap: $16.77B
PE: 25.50
Stock performance: Started the year at $40.18 Currently at $52.75
Company: Intel
Ticker: INTC
Description: Microprocessor chip manufacturer
Earnings history: Missed 1 met 1 and beat 2 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.17
Market cap: $124.59B
PE: 19.41
Stock performance: Started the year at $25.19 Currently at $21.00
Company: IBM
Ticker: IBM
Description: IT solution provider
Earnings history: Beat 4 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $1.35
Market cap: $131B
PE: 16.25
Stock performance: Started the year at $82.45 Currently at $86.08
Company: Johnson and Johnson
Ticker: JNJ
Description: Consumer goods and pharmaceutical manufacturer
Earnings history: Missed 3 and Beat 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.93
Market cap: $188.90B
PE: 17.34
Stock performance: Started the year at $61.07 Currently at $64.58
Company: Keycorp
Ticker: KEY
Description: Banking
Earnings history: Beat 4 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.72
Market cap: $14.93B
PE: 13.05
Stock performance: Started the year at $33.18 Currently at $37.02
Company: Merril Lynch
Ticker: MER
Description: Financial services
Earnings history: Beat 4 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $1.47
Market cap: $74.11B
PE: 17.15
Stock performance: Started the year at $67.75 Currently at $83.60
Company: Motorola
Ticker: MOT
Description: Communication and electronic device manufacturer
Earnings history: Meat 3 and missed 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.34
Market cap: $64.49B
PE: 13.29
Stock performance: Started the year at $22.84 Currently at $26.20
Company: National city
Ticker: NCC
Description: Banking
Earnings history: Beat 2 and missed 2 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.80
Market cap:$22.28B
PE: 12.78
Stock performance: Started the year at $33.77 Currently at $36.84
Company: Office Depot
Ticker: ODP
Description: Office supply retailer
Earnings history: Met 3 and missed 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.44
Market cap: $11.83B
PE: 41.36
Stock performance: Started the year at $31.70 Currently at $41.77
Company: Sovereign Bancorp
Ticker: SOV
Description: Banking
Earnings history: Missed 3 and beat 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.38
Market cap: $11.28B
PE: 21.94
Stock performance: Started the year at $21.70 Currently at $23.91
Company: State Street
Ticker: STT
Description: Banking
Earnings history: Beat 4 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.79
Market cap: $21.15B
PE: 23.52
Stock performance: Started the year at $55.60 Currently at $63.87
Company: Stryker
Ticker: SYK
Description: Orthopedic manufacturer
Earnings history: Missed 1 met 1 and beat 2 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.46
Market cap: $20.49B
PE: 29.99
Stock performance: Started the year at $44.90 Currently at $50.41
Company: Suntrust Banks
Ticker: STI
Description: Banking
Earnings history: Met 1 and beat 4 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $1.46
Market cap: $28.97B
PE: 13.71
Stock performance: Started the year at $73.01 Currently at $79.41
Company: EW Scripps
Ticker: SSP
Description: Television and periodicals
Earnings history: Missed 1 and beat 3 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.40
Market cap: $8B
PE: 35.50
Stock performance: Started the year at $48.05 Currently at $48.95
Company: United Technologies
Ticker: UTX
Description: Conglomerate
Earnings history: Beat 4 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.96
Market cap: $67.36B
PE:20.25
Stock performance: Started the year at $56.45 Currently at $66.50
Company: Wells Fargo
Ticker: WFC
Description: Banking
Earnings history: Missed 3 and beat 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.63
Market cap: $122.33B
PE: 15.41
Stock performance: Started the year at $63.20 Currently at $36.33
Company: WIT
Ticker: Wipro
Description: IT products and services
Earnings history: Met 3 and beat 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.10
Market cap: $21.04B
PE: 43.21
Stock performance: Started the year at $12.26 Currently at $14.69
Company: Yahoo
Ticker: YHOO
Description: Internet search and advertising
Earnings history: Missed 1 Met 2 and beat 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.11
Market cap: $33.78B
PE: 28.80
Stock performance: Started the year at $39.69 Currently at $24.42
Good luck investors
Major earnings announcements for Oct. 16th
The major portion of earnings starts next week. Following are major companies that announce Oct. 16th.
Company: Commerce Bancorp
Ticker: CBH
Description: Banking
Earnings history: Met 2 beat 1 and missed 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.41
Market cap: $6.79B
PE: 23.89
Stock performance: Started the year at $34.80 Currently at $36.43
Company: Eaton
Ticker: ETN
Description: Industrial conglomerate
Earnings history: Beat 3 and missed 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $1.59
Market cap: $10.55B
PE: 12.38
Stock performance: Started the year at $67.30 Currently at $70.30
Company: Marshal and Isely
Ticker: MI
Description: Banking
Earnings history: Met 1 beat 1 and missed 2 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.81
Market cap: $12.48B
PE: 15.50
Stock performance: Started the year at $43.14 Currently at $49.07
Company: Mattel
Ticker: MAT
Description: Designs and manufacturer of toys
Earnings history: Missed 2 and beat 2 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.61
Market cap: $7.82B
PE: 14.46
Stock performance: Started the year at $15.88 Currently at $20.70
Company: WW Grainger
Ticker: GWW
Description: Industrial wholesaler
Earnings history: Met 2 and beat 2 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $1.06
Market cap: $6.25B
PE: 17.42
Stock performance: Started the year at $71.02 Currently at $70.52
Company: Wachovia
Ticker: WB
Description: Banking and financial services
Earnings history: Met 2 and Beat 2 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $1.14
Market cap: $89.76B
PE: 12.82
Stock performance: Started the year at $53.00 Currently at $56.47
Good luck investors
Company: Commerce Bancorp
Ticker: CBH
Description: Banking
Earnings history: Met 2 beat 1 and missed 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.41
Market cap: $6.79B
PE: 23.89
Stock performance: Started the year at $34.80 Currently at $36.43
Company: Eaton
Ticker: ETN
Description: Industrial conglomerate
Earnings history: Beat 3 and missed 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $1.59
Market cap: $10.55B
PE: 12.38
Stock performance: Started the year at $67.30 Currently at $70.30
Company: Marshal and Isely
Ticker: MI
Description: Banking
Earnings history: Met 1 beat 1 and missed 2 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.81
Market cap: $12.48B
PE: 15.50
Stock performance: Started the year at $43.14 Currently at $49.07
Company: Mattel
Ticker: MAT
Description: Designs and manufacturer of toys
Earnings history: Missed 2 and beat 2 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.61
Market cap: $7.82B
PE: 14.46
Stock performance: Started the year at $15.88 Currently at $20.70
Company: WW Grainger
Ticker: GWW
Description: Industrial wholesaler
Earnings history: Met 2 and beat 2 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $1.06
Market cap: $6.25B
PE: 17.42
Stock performance: Started the year at $71.02 Currently at $70.52
Company: Wachovia
Ticker: WB
Description: Banking and financial services
Earnings history: Met 2 and Beat 2 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $1.14
Market cap: $89.76B
PE: 12.82
Stock performance: Started the year at $53.00 Currently at $56.47
Good luck investors
Thursday, October 12, 2006
Is Google's Youtube purchase and indication of a great Q3
As many people know, Google purchased Youtube. Hernry Blodget indicated in his blog that the acceptance of stock by Youtube and Sequoia Capitol was a bearish indicator for Google's 3rd quarter earnings.
http://internet.seekingalpha.com/article/18152
Henry Blodget had some good points. I do think that both Youtube and Sequoia most likely like the business model or they wouldn't accept Google stock.
..................However............................ ..
I do not think it in any way portends anything for Q3 earnings. The deal plain and simple has not been consummated yet.
We as investors look for a mechanism to allow us to know something that hasn't already happened. We could say aha looks like GOOG is going to massively beat because.......
What happens if we are wrong? Well we loose money. What GOOG will earn is not currently transparent. With the current history of GOOG's earnings, a very good quarter could be announced. However the two events are independent of one another.
I guess, if we take Blodget's word for it, we can blame him if we loose money. I am in no way trying to berate Mr. Blodget. I like many things that he says. I think the line of thinking in the aforementioned article could be disastrous to the investor.
If anyone is planning on speculating through Google's earnings, I would say don't. I am not saying that it is wrong to invest in Google. Just don't make assumptions that very well could be wrong. The plain fact of the matter is.....Without any guidance there is no way to know what is going to happen. All we can do is guess. Study and use prudence when you invest.
Good luck investors
http://internet.seekingalpha.com/article/18152
Henry Blodget had some good points. I do think that both Youtube and Sequoia most likely like the business model or they wouldn't accept Google stock.
..................However............................ ..
I do not think it in any way portends anything for Q3 earnings. The deal plain and simple has not been consummated yet.
We as investors look for a mechanism to allow us to know something that hasn't already happened. We could say aha looks like GOOG is going to massively beat because.......
What happens if we are wrong? Well we loose money. What GOOG will earn is not currently transparent. With the current history of GOOG's earnings, a very good quarter could be announced. However the two events are independent of one another.
I guess, if we take Blodget's word for it, we can blame him if we loose money. I am in no way trying to berate Mr. Blodget. I like many things that he says. I think the line of thinking in the aforementioned article could be disastrous to the investor.
If anyone is planning on speculating through Google's earnings, I would say don't. I am not saying that it is wrong to invest in Google. Just don't make assumptions that very well could be wrong. The plain fact of the matter is.....Without any guidance there is no way to know what is going to happen. All we can do is guess. Study and use prudence when you invest.
Good luck investors
Wednesday, October 11, 2006
AA misses PD sale rumors.....Metals were mixed
AA anounced after the bell yesterday. The reported a EPS of $.61 and analysts were expecting $.79. December gold closed down $5.80 to close at $577.00. Atticus Capitol who owns 10% of PD filled with the SEC it's intent to shop PD. The metals where mixed.
PD $90.84 up $3.06
BHP $38.52 down$.17
RTP $191.97 down $.31
AA $26.97 down $1.44
AL $39.90 down $.77
GG $21.13 down $.66
NEM $41.09 down $.72
AU $37.30 down $.10
TIE $27.21 up $.76
X $64.05 down $.30
NUE $64.05 down $.54
Good luck investors
PD $90.84 up $3.06
BHP $38.52 down$.17
RTP $191.97 down $.31
AA $26.97 down $1.44
AL $39.90 down $.77
GG $21.13 down $.66
NEM $41.09 down $.72
AU $37.30 down $.10
TIE $27.21 up $.76
X $64.05 down $.30
NUE $64.05 down $.54
Good luck investors
Tuesday, October 10, 2006
SVU beats ..... Grocers get a nice lift
SVU post 3rd quarter earnings of .61. Analysts were expecting $.53. They also raised guidance for the year from $2.18 to $2.41. The Grocers generally got a lift.
SVU $32.39 up $1.38
KR $22.71 down $.04
SWY $29.49 up $.74
WFMI $62.69 up $1.37
SWY announces on Thursday October 12th.....Hmmmm
Good luck investors
SVU $32.39 up $1.38
KR $22.71 down $.04
SWY $29.49 up $.74
WFMI $62.69 up $1.37
SWY announces on Thursday October 12th.....Hmmmm
Good luck investors
Monday, October 09, 2006
Google and Youtube......From here tube eternity
After the stock market closed today. Youtube and Google announced the deal. Youtube will be run as with some autonomy.
The deal was for $1.65 billion in stock. The deal will close in the fourth quarter of this year. At current valuations, this will add around 4 million more shares to GOOG's float. With current projections that will take about $.04 out of the EPS.
Will it be good for GOOG?
Only time will tell. As I said in the previous post, I believe it was a deal that GOOG had to make.
Good luck investors
The deal was for $1.65 billion in stock. The deal will close in the fourth quarter of this year. At current valuations, this will add around 4 million more shares to GOOG's float. With current projections that will take about $.04 out of the EPS.
Will it be good for GOOG?
Only time will tell. As I said in the previous post, I believe it was a deal that GOOG had to make.
Good luck investors
Major earnings announcements week of Oct. 9th
Following are major companies announcing earnings the week of Oct. 9th:
October 10th
Company: Alcoa Aluminum
Ticker: AA
Description: Aluminum producer
Earnings history: Beat 3 and missed 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.78
Market cap: $24.05B
PE: 13.05
Stock performance: Started the year at $29.59 Currently at $27.50
Company: Genentech
Ticker: DNA
Description: Biotech company
Earnings history: Beat 3 and met 1 of the last for earnings
Expectations: $.50
Market cap: $87.61B
PE: 54.41
Stock performance: Started the year at $93.41 Currently at $83.20
Company: Supervalu
Ticker: SVU
Description: Wholesale and retail grocer
Earnings history: Beat 2 and missed 2 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.53
Market cap: $6.37B
PE: 21.32
Stock performance: Started the year at $32.80 Currently at $30.10
October 11th
Company: Gannett
Ticker: GCI
Description: News paper and periodical publisher
Earnings history: Beat 1 and met 3 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $1.11
Market cap: $13.44B
PE: 11.49
Stock performance: Started the year at $61.35 Currently at $56.85
Company: Host Hotels and Resorts
Ticker: HST
Description: Hotel and resort chain
Earnings history: Beat 4 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.28
Market cap: $12.28B
PE: 17.31
Stock performance: Started the year at $19.05 Currently at $23.59
Company: M&T Bank Corp.
Ticker: MTB
Description: Commercial and retail banking
Earnings history: Beat 3 and missed 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $1.84
Market cap: $13.21B
PE: 16.85
Stock performance: Started the year at $109.05 Currently at $119.00
Company: Monsanto
Ticker: MON
Description: Agriculture chemical manufacturer
Earnings history: Beat 1 and missed 3 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: -$.21
Market cap: $25.61B
PE: 36.67
Stock performance: Started the year at $78.30 Currently at $47.19
Company: Yum Brands
Ticker: YUM
Description: Restaurant chain
Earnings history: Beat 2 and missed 2 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.75
Market cap: $14.62B
PE: 19.64
Stock performance: Started the year at $47.09 Currently at $54.00
October 12th
October 10th
Company: Alcoa Aluminum
Ticker: AA
Description: Aluminum producer
Earnings history: Beat 3 and missed 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.78
Market cap: $24.05B
PE: 13.05
Stock performance: Started the year at $29.59 Currently at $27.50
Company: Genentech
Ticker: DNA
Description: Biotech company
Earnings history: Beat 3 and met 1 of the last for earnings
Expectations: $.50
Market cap: $87.61B
PE: 54.41
Stock performance: Started the year at $93.41 Currently at $83.20
Company: Supervalu
Ticker: SVU
Description: Wholesale and retail grocer
Earnings history: Beat 2 and missed 2 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.53
Market cap: $6.37B
PE: 21.32
Stock performance: Started the year at $32.80 Currently at $30.10
October 11th
Company: Gannett
Ticker: GCI
Description: News paper and periodical publisher
Earnings history: Beat 1 and met 3 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $1.11
Market cap: $13.44B
PE: 11.49
Stock performance: Started the year at $61.35 Currently at $56.85
Company: Host Hotels and Resorts
Ticker: HST
Description: Hotel and resort chain
Earnings history: Beat 4 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.28
Market cap: $12.28B
PE: 17.31
Stock performance: Started the year at $19.05 Currently at $23.59
Company: M&T Bank Corp.
Ticker: MTB
Description: Commercial and retail banking
Earnings history: Beat 3 and missed 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $1.84
Market cap: $13.21B
PE: 16.85
Stock performance: Started the year at $109.05 Currently at $119.00
Company: Monsanto
Ticker: MON
Description: Agriculture chemical manufacturer
Earnings history: Beat 1 and missed 3 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: -$.21
Market cap: $25.61B
PE: 36.67
Stock performance: Started the year at $78.30 Currently at $47.19
Company: Yum Brands
Ticker: YUM
Description: Restaurant chain
Earnings history: Beat 2 and missed 2 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.75
Market cap: $14.62B
PE: 19.64
Stock performance: Started the year at $47.09 Currently at $54.00
October 12th
Company: Costco Wholesale
Ticker: COST
Description: Warehouse shopping
Earnings history: Beat 2 met 1 and missed 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.73
Market cap: $23.61B
PE: 21.68
Stock performance: Started the year at $49.75 Currently at $49.48
Company: Genzyme
Ticker: GENZ
Description: Bio tech company
Earnings history: Beat 2 met 1 and missed 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.71
Market cap: $18.19B
PE: 41.29
Stock performance: Started the year at $70.67 Currently at $69.61
Company: MGIC investment
Ticker: MTG
Description: Private mortgage insurance
Earnings history: Beat 3 and missed 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $1.55
Market cap: $5.12B
PE: 9.20
Stock performance: Started the year at $66.50 Currently at $60.64
Company: Pepsi Co.
Ticker: PEP
Description: Beverage and snack food producer
Earnings history: Beat 3 and met 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.86
Market cap: $105.42B
PE: 24.94
Stock performance: Started the year at $59.92 Currently at $63.94
Company: Safeway
Ticker: SWY
Description: Retail grocer
Earnings history: Beat 3 and missed 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.39
Market cap: $12.67B
PE: 18.73
Stock performance: Started the year at $23.81 Currently at $28.49
October 13th
Company: General Electric
Ticker: GE
Description: Conglomerate
Earnings history: Met 3 and missed 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.49
Market cap: $371.69B
PE: 22.39
Stock performance: Started the year at $35.10 Currently at $36.01
Company: Regions Financial
Ticker: RF
Description: Commercial Banking
Earnings history: Beat 3 and missed 1 of the last 4 earnings
Expectations: $.71
Market cap: $17.14B
PE: 15.13
Stock performance: Started the year at $34.20 Currently at $37.69
Good luck investors
Youtube + GOOG ......Totally tubular or down the tubes
My belief is that the youtube purchase is done for 1 of 2 reasons.
1) To compel the investors. There has not been a lot of news from GOOG to stir the markets imagination. This deal does this in a big way.
2) Google wants to remain a leader in search. Google is afraid of loosing it's search share to not only Yahoo and MSN but the upstarts like......My Space, Metacafe, Bolt. I believe that impetus for the interest in Youtube is purely preservationist.
We as investors must view this differently..........
The unfortunate problem with video share is that it has a cult-like existence. This is a place for the teens and early twenties to express themselves. If the format is tweaked, will the users bail?Youtube also has a fad-like existence. What happened to Community Webshots? Well, it is still a valid site but you hardly hear about it any more. With Myspace and Youtube, the aforementioned demographic has another place to go. With the proliferation of other sites similar to Myspace and Youtube, there will be other places that offer just the right mix to make a "community" among their users. Will Youtube's format remain the user choice in the future?
The cost......What does $1.65B represent? Could other companies join in on the frenzy and bid the deal up higher?Google earns roughly 1% per quarter on it's cash. At that point $1.6B, becomes $16.5 million lost per quarter of pretax income due to interest (this would be similar to operating income). At this rate, the combined entity (Youtube + Google video) would have to generate $66 million more in operational income than Google video generates alone. With GOOG's operational income being roughly 1/3 of revenue, the break even of this venture would be $198 million revenue more than Google currently generates from it's video. Even if this deal goes beyond the break even point, could the money been spent another way to produce more growth?
With the potential revenue of video share by 2010 being $2.5 billion dollars, this ought to be a slam dunk....Right?With Myspace etal, Google/Youtube will get a piece of the pie. This is a good deal for now and it could be a real profitable venture..................However...........................
I believe that when we look at the future of deals such as Youtube, we have to be risk aware. The risks of the deal remain:
1) Will Youtube still be the same after it is bought and commercialized and tweaked?
2) Will the current format of video share still be popular1,5, or 10 years from now.
3) How much money will this combination generate? Will the amount of money be sufficient to offset the purchase price?
Even if the combination doesn't make the investor money, this is the type of deal that Google must do. To remain in the lead in search, Google will have to spend. In an otherwise stagnate sphere (GOOG news) , this purchase will give GOOG something to compel the stock until the purchase is closed. For the near term the market appears to like the news. The question is what will the markets perception of this deal be in the future.
Good luck investors
1) To compel the investors. There has not been a lot of news from GOOG to stir the markets imagination. This deal does this in a big way.
2) Google wants to remain a leader in search. Google is afraid of loosing it's search share to not only Yahoo and MSN but the upstarts like......My Space, Metacafe, Bolt. I believe that impetus for the interest in Youtube is purely preservationist.
We as investors must view this differently..........
The unfortunate problem with video share is that it has a cult-like existence. This is a place for the teens and early twenties to express themselves. If the format is tweaked, will the users bail?Youtube also has a fad-like existence. What happened to Community Webshots? Well, it is still a valid site but you hardly hear about it any more. With Myspace and Youtube, the aforementioned demographic has another place to go. With the proliferation of other sites similar to Myspace and Youtube, there will be other places that offer just the right mix to make a "community" among their users. Will Youtube's format remain the user choice in the future?
The cost......What does $1.65B represent? Could other companies join in on the frenzy and bid the deal up higher?Google earns roughly 1% per quarter on it's cash. At that point $1.6B, becomes $16.5 million lost per quarter of pretax income due to interest (this would be similar to operating income). At this rate, the combined entity (Youtube + Google video) would have to generate $66 million more in operational income than Google video generates alone. With GOOG's operational income being roughly 1/3 of revenue, the break even of this venture would be $198 million revenue more than Google currently generates from it's video. Even if this deal goes beyond the break even point, could the money been spent another way to produce more growth?
With the potential revenue of video share by 2010 being $2.5 billion dollars, this ought to be a slam dunk....Right?With Myspace etal, Google/Youtube will get a piece of the pie. This is a good deal for now and it could be a real profitable venture..................However...........................
I believe that when we look at the future of deals such as Youtube, we have to be risk aware. The risks of the deal remain:
1) Will Youtube still be the same after it is bought and commercialized and tweaked?
2) Will the current format of video share still be popular1,5, or 10 years from now.
3) How much money will this combination generate? Will the amount of money be sufficient to offset the purchase price?
Even if the combination doesn't make the investor money, this is the type of deal that Google must do. To remain in the lead in search, Google will have to spend. In an otherwise stagnate sphere (GOOG news) , this purchase will give GOOG something to compel the stock until the purchase is closed. For the near term the market appears to like the news. The question is what will the markets perception of this deal be in the future.
Good luck investors
Saturday, October 07, 2006
GOOG's 3rd quarter earnings... the Bull and the Bear
GOOG is one of the least transparent companies on the face of the earth. When we try to take a look at earnings, we get wildly varying statements. I believe that it is a mistake to trade through the earnings with a company like Google. Here are a couple of scenarios from the bull and the bear perspective. In this post we will look at just revenue and assume that everything else is held constant. Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call are expecting GOOG to have a Q3/Q2 revenue growth of 9%.
The bull: Google always beats every time with the exception of Q4(05) which was due to taxes. They have been increasing their market share at the expense of YHOO and MSFT. Last quarter they grew quarter over quarter by 15%. This will be no exception this time.
The bear: What part of slowing growth don't you understand? Google is saying that this is the slowest part of the season. Last year in the third quarter was due to the hurricanes. Many people where searching for loved ones. It was a total anomaly.
The bull: You would short your own company give me a break. While I do think that Google will be slightly less than 15%, I don't expect it to be by much. By the way why don't you keep events like the hurricane out of this argument. It has nothing to do with anything. While there is a little slowing in the overall growth, take a look at all the market share that Google is taking from Yahoo and Micrososft. Didn't you see that Yahoo warned....This was due to a loss of market share to yes you guessed it GOOG. You are going to be sorry for shorting GOOG through earnings. I expect GOOG to have revenue growth of 14% this quarter.
The bear: Give me a break.......Yahoo's warning is bad for the whole sector. Google should have announced revenue growth of around 5% last year. I don't expect GOOG to grow at all this quarter over last quarter. If you hold through earnings, you'll be left holding the bag.
Let's run this through the equations and see what we come up with.
Assumptions: Tax rate=30%, TAC=32% of Revenue, quarter/quarter non-TAC costs will increase 8.6% which is the same as Q2/Q1, stock option expense will be $109 million, interest from cash=$100 million, and total dilutive shares =311 million (1 million in addition to 31o million).
Q2(06) revenue=$2.456 billion
Total cost and expenses less TAC=$856 million @ 8.6% increase=$930 million
Non GAAP expectations=2.42
The bull case:
Q3(06) revenue=1.14 x $2.456 billion =$2.8 billion
TAC=32% of revenue $896 million
Total cost and expenses: $930 million+$896 million=$1.826 billion
Operating income: Revenue-total cost=$974 million
Operating income + interest: $1.074 billion
Taxes @ 30%: $322 million
Non GAAP as applicable to the common shares: Operating income +Option expense (this is added because it is backed out for non GAAP calculation) +interest-taxes=$883 million
Non GAAP EPS: $861m/311m (shares)=$2.77
The bear case:
Q3(06) revenue=$2.456 billion
TAC: $786 million
Total cost and expenses: $903 million+ $786 million=$1.689 billion
Operating income: $2.456 billion-$1.689 billion=$767 million
Operating income + interest: $867 million
Taxes @ 30%: $260 million
Non GAAP income applicable to shares: $716 million
Non GAAP EPS: $716m/311m=$2.30
This bull and bear case will get a little wilder when we look at cost and throw that into the mix in the next post. The lesson to this story is that it will be tough to figure out exactly what the announcement will be for GOOG. You will hear both sides.
Good luck investors
The bull: Google always beats every time with the exception of Q4(05) which was due to taxes. They have been increasing their market share at the expense of YHOO and MSFT. Last quarter they grew quarter over quarter by 15%. This will be no exception this time.
The bear: What part of slowing growth don't you understand? Google is saying that this is the slowest part of the season. Last year in the third quarter was due to the hurricanes. Many people where searching for loved ones. It was a total anomaly.
The bull: You would short your own company give me a break. While I do think that Google will be slightly less than 15%, I don't expect it to be by much. By the way why don't you keep events like the hurricane out of this argument. It has nothing to do with anything. While there is a little slowing in the overall growth, take a look at all the market share that Google is taking from Yahoo and Micrososft. Didn't you see that Yahoo warned....This was due to a loss of market share to yes you guessed it GOOG. You are going to be sorry for shorting GOOG through earnings. I expect GOOG to have revenue growth of 14% this quarter.
The bear: Give me a break.......Yahoo's warning is bad for the whole sector. Google should have announced revenue growth of around 5% last year. I don't expect GOOG to grow at all this quarter over last quarter. If you hold through earnings, you'll be left holding the bag.
Let's run this through the equations and see what we come up with.
Assumptions: Tax rate=30%, TAC=32% of Revenue, quarter/quarter non-TAC costs will increase 8.6% which is the same as Q2/Q1, stock option expense will be $109 million, interest from cash=$100 million, and total dilutive shares =311 million (1 million in addition to 31o million).
Q2(06) revenue=$2.456 billion
Total cost and expenses less TAC=$856 million @ 8.6% increase=$930 million
Non GAAP expectations=2.42
The bull case:
Q3(06) revenue=1.14 x $2.456 billion =$2.8 billion
TAC=32% of revenue $896 million
Total cost and expenses: $930 million+$896 million=$1.826 billion
Operating income: Revenue-total cost=$974 million
Operating income + interest: $1.074 billion
Taxes @ 30%: $322 million
Non GAAP as applicable to the common shares: Operating income +Option expense (this is added because it is backed out for non GAAP calculation) +interest-taxes=$883 million
Non GAAP EPS: $861m/311m (shares)=$2.77
The bear case:
Q3(06) revenue=$2.456 billion
TAC: $786 million
Total cost and expenses: $903 million+ $786 million=$1.689 billion
Operating income: $2.456 billion-$1.689 billion=$767 million
Operating income + interest: $867 million
Taxes @ 30%: $260 million
Non GAAP income applicable to shares: $716 million
Non GAAP EPS: $716m/311m=$2.30
This bull and bear case will get a little wilder when we look at cost and throw that into the mix in the next post. The lesson to this story is that it will be tough to figure out exactly what the announcement will be for GOOG. You will hear both sides.
Good luck investors
The vertical debit spread
In my last option strategy post, I spoke about the vertical credit spread. The vertical debit spread is like the aforementioned except it is done in a debit as opposed to a credit.
Let's review a few concepts. A vertical spread is where a person buys and sells the same number of options in the same month. The credit spread is where the option sold is more than the option bought giving the person a credit. The vertical debit spread has an advantage when time value and implied volatility decline. A vertical credit spread profitability is neutral where the risk is direction one way. Think of a debit spread as buying an option and selling a option to offset the cost of the option that was bought.
A debit spread is a little harder to understand. To go profitable the spread has to widen or the difference in the price of the call bought and the call sold has to increase. When this position is closed if the the difference is larger the player will receive more money. The maximum loss in this position is the debit. The maximum profit in this position is the spread minus the debit.
Let's take a look at an example.
You buy a Aug 400 Goog put for $10.20 and sell a Aug 390 put for $6.70. If Goog is neutral or
rises by option expiration, a $10.20-$6.70=$3.50 would be created. If Goog drops below $390.00 before OE the profit would be the spread ($400 - $390=$10) less the premium paid or $6.50. This is called a bear put debit spread.Now the converse is true with a bull call debit spread. An example would be: You buy a August 410 call for $13.05 and sell a Aug 420 call for $8.65. Your debit is $4.40 and your maximum profit is $5.60. This spread is looking for Goog to rise near or above $410.
You see that all I did in the example was to turn around the buys and the sells in my post of vertical credit spreads. We will be following option contracts that will help show how these various strategies work. There are many other types of spreads that may be done in a debit position and understanding the various types of option plays will allow you to have some different ways to play options.
Good luck investors
Let's review a few concepts. A vertical spread is where a person buys and sells the same number of options in the same month. The credit spread is where the option sold is more than the option bought giving the person a credit. The vertical debit spread has an advantage when time value and implied volatility decline. A vertical credit spread profitability is neutral where the risk is direction one way. Think of a debit spread as buying an option and selling a option to offset the cost of the option that was bought.
A debit spread is a little harder to understand. To go profitable the spread has to widen or the difference in the price of the call bought and the call sold has to increase. When this position is closed if the the difference is larger the player will receive more money. The maximum loss in this position is the debit. The maximum profit in this position is the spread minus the debit.
Let's take a look at an example.
You buy a Aug 400 Goog put for $10.20 and sell a Aug 390 put for $6.70. If Goog is neutral or
rises by option expiration, a $10.20-$6.70=$3.50 would be created. If Goog drops below $390.00 before OE the profit would be the spread ($400 - $390=$10) less the premium paid or $6.50. This is called a bear put debit spread.Now the converse is true with a bull call debit spread. An example would be: You buy a August 410 call for $13.05 and sell a Aug 420 call for $8.65. Your debit is $4.40 and your maximum profit is $5.60. This spread is looking for Goog to rise near or above $410.
You see that all I did in the example was to turn around the buys and the sells in my post of vertical credit spreads. We will be following option contracts that will help show how these various strategies work. There are many other types of spreads that may be done in a debit position and understanding the various types of option plays will allow you to have some different ways to play options.
Good luck investors
Thursday, October 05, 2006
Analyst recommended US Steel the metals and miners soared
A Bank of America analyst recommend US steel. Copper futured were up $.085 to end at $3.29. The metals went up especially copper miners and the steel industry.
PD: $82.76 up $4.11
PCU: $45.70 up $1.30
BHP: $37.72 up $1.15
RTP: $187.22 up $4.81
TIE: $25.37 up $1.48
GG: $22.09 up $.33
NEM: $41.83 up $1.00
AU: $37.36 up $1.77
X: $60.63 up $4.68
NUE: $51.98 up $3.23
AA: $27.57 up $.41
AL: $39.63 up $.60
Good luck investors
PD: $82.76 up $4.11
PCU: $45.70 up $1.30
BHP: $37.72 up $1.15
RTP: $187.22 up $4.81
TIE: $25.37 up $1.48
GG: $22.09 up $.33
NEM: $41.83 up $1.00
AU: $37.36 up $1.77
X: $60.63 up $4.68
NUE: $51.98 up $3.23
AA: $27.57 up $.41
AL: $39.63 up $.60
Good luck investors
Wednesday, October 04, 2006
The copper and conglomerate miners had another down day
The copper and conglomerate miners had another down day. Gold futures were off $14.80 to end the day at $566.70. Copper was up a penny and some change. Despite gold dropping the gold miners had a pat day.
PD: $78.65 down $1.40
PCU $44.40 down $.73
BHP: $35.57 down $.71
RTP: $182.41 down $2.14
GG: $21.76 up $.39
NEM: $40.83 down $.06
AU: $36.59 up $.40
Good luck investors
PD: $78.65 down $1.40
PCU $44.40 down $.73
BHP: $35.57 down $.71
RTP: $182.41 down $2.14
GG: $21.76 up $.39
NEM: $40.83 down $.06
AU: $36.59 up $.40
Good luck investors
The market rose nicely today
Ben Bernanke indicated that the Fed would refrain from raising rates today. The market sailed today:
Dow: $11850.61 up $123.27
Nasdaq: $2290.95 up $47.30
S&P: $1350.22 up $16.11
Internet sector:
GOOG : $415.70 up $11.66
YHOO : $25.21 up $.37
EBAY : $29.90 up $1.72
AMZN : $32.76 up $1.06
IACI : $29.73 up $.90
Tech:
SNDK : $56.38 up $3.07
RIMM : $108.80 up $6.73
ERIC : $34.95 up $.76
AAPL : $75.38 up $1.30
Mature tech:
MSFT : $27.94 up $.57
CSCO : $23.93 up $.52
IBM : $83.10 up $1.45
Non tech growth:
HANS : $32.24 up $1.13
WFMI : $60.92 up $1.11
Yes even the oil stocks were up. The metals and the miners were one sector that was off.
Good luck investors
Dow: $11850.61 up $123.27
Nasdaq: $2290.95 up $47.30
S&P: $1350.22 up $16.11
Internet sector:
GOOG : $415.70 up $11.66
YHOO : $25.21 up $.37
EBAY : $29.90 up $1.72
AMZN : $32.76 up $1.06
IACI : $29.73 up $.90
Tech:
SNDK : $56.38 up $3.07
RIMM : $108.80 up $6.73
ERIC : $34.95 up $.76
AAPL : $75.38 up $1.30
Mature tech:
MSFT : $27.94 up $.57
CSCO : $23.93 up $.52
IBM : $83.10 up $1.45
Non tech growth:
HANS : $32.24 up $1.13
WFMI : $60.92 up $1.11
Yes even the oil stocks were up. The metals and the miners were one sector that was off.
Good luck investors
Tuesday, October 03, 2006
Refiners and big oil hit a slick today
Oil finished under $60.00 today to end at $59.95 down $1.08. The refiners and big oil took a big hit today.
XOM: $65.41 down $1.59
BP: $63.72 down $1.62
CVX: $62.94 down $1.57
COP: $56.03 down $2.52
TSO: $55.59 down $2.63
VLO: $48.17 down $2.77
SUN: $58.83 down $3.02
Oil and energy ETFs
IYE: $88.41 down $3.17
VDE: $74.11 down $2.70
OIH: $120.56 down $5.59
XLE: $50.90 down $1.94
Good luck investors
XOM: $65.41 down $1.59
BP: $63.72 down $1.62
CVX: $62.94 down $1.57
COP: $56.03 down $2.52
TSO: $55.59 down $2.63
VLO: $48.17 down $2.77
SUN: $58.83 down $3.02
Oil and energy ETFs
IYE: $88.41 down $3.17
VDE: $74.11 down $2.70
OIH: $120.56 down $5.59
XLE: $50.90 down $1.94
Good luck investors
Gold down miners off today
Gold futures dropped $15.30 to end a $588 a troy once. The metals and miners were down sharply across the board.
PD: $80.05 down $5.08
PCU: $45.13 down $1.83
BHP: $37.28 down $1.09
RTP: $184.55 down $7.63
TIE: $23.40 down $1.40
GG: $21.37 down $1.73
NEM: $40.87 down $2.32
AU: $36.19 down $1.96
X: $55.06 down $2.25
NUE: $48.35 down $1.58
AA: $27.10 down $.52
AL: $39.02 down $1.49
Good luck investors
PD: $80.05 down $5.08
PCU: $45.13 down $1.83
BHP: $37.28 down $1.09
RTP: $184.55 down $7.63
TIE: $23.40 down $1.40
GG: $21.37 down $1.73
NEM: $40.87 down $2.32
AU: $36.19 down $1.96
X: $55.06 down $2.25
NUE: $48.35 down $1.58
AA: $27.10 down $.52
AL: $39.02 down $1.49
Good luck investors
Monday, October 02, 2006
RIMM option observation
Rimm dropped from Fridays close of $102.65 to end today at $100.01. I have been observing some options. In my last RIMM post, I spoke of a strangle play being to expensive. This is a one day observation with a drop of $2.45. This was a almost a perfectly balanced 100 strike put and 105 call. This took the put to at the money which should have made this play profitable. The play in fact was not profitable. The put gained value as the stock dropped, but the call lost more than the put gained.
This is where the intricacies of option playing gets confusing. One would have expected the put to gain value faster than the call lost value. What happened?
Both contracts lost implied volatility. Now, one might wonder how we figure what the implied volatility is before we play. There are calculators as well as areas like 888options.com where you can see what the implied volatility may be. So what will the implied volatility tell a person?
The implied volatility won't tell the person much if they do not understand the movement of the option contracts. Implied volatility (IV) is a relative measure. Some stocks exhibit higher IV than others. IV is also a reflection of the expectation of the buyer. This is why we are observing the RIMM options. I will have a full posting at the end of the week as we watch the options move with RIMM. This will include Delta, Theta, Gamma, and Vega. By the end of the week we will have a little understanding about RIMM option contracts that we never had before.
For clarification following is a breakdown of premiums from Friday to today on all the options that we observed. Just to make it interesting, I will post these into strangle pairs.
Friday: Oct 100 put=$2.30 Oct. 105 call=$2.75 combination=$5.05
Monday: Oct 100 put=$3.15 Oct 105 call= $1.50 Combination=$4.65
Friday: Oct. 95 put=$.95 Oct.110 call=$1.20 Combination= $2.15
Monday: Oct. 95 put=$1.35 Oct.110 call=$.55 Combination=$1.90
Friday: Oct. 90 put=$.35 Oct.115 call=$.50 Combination=$.85
Monday: Oct. 90 put=$.55 Oct. 115 call=$.20 Combination=$.75
Friday: Nov. 100 put=$3.95 Nov. 105 call=$4.60 Combination=$8.55
Monday: Nov. 100 put=$4.95 Nov.105 call=$3.35 Combination=$8.30
Friday: Nov. 95 put=$2.20 Nov.110 call=$2.75 Combination=$4.95
Monday: Nov. 95 put=$2.85 Nov.110 call=$1.90 Combination=$4.75
Friday: Nov. 90 put=$1.20 Nov. 115 call= $1.60 Combination= $2.80
Monday: Nov. 90 put=$1.55 Nov. 115 call=$1.00 Combination= $2.55
As we observe options, I want you to take a look at what happens as the stock moves. We will see some increase in IV. We will observe about five stocks with the corresponding option contracts going into earning. This observation will be 2 weeks prior to the earnings announcement. If you want to study these posts, you will become a very knowledgeable person in options.
Good luck investors
This is where the intricacies of option playing gets confusing. One would have expected the put to gain value faster than the call lost value. What happened?
Both contracts lost implied volatility. Now, one might wonder how we figure what the implied volatility is before we play. There are calculators as well as areas like 888options.com where you can see what the implied volatility may be. So what will the implied volatility tell a person?
The implied volatility won't tell the person much if they do not understand the movement of the option contracts. Implied volatility (IV) is a relative measure. Some stocks exhibit higher IV than others. IV is also a reflection of the expectation of the buyer. This is why we are observing the RIMM options. I will have a full posting at the end of the week as we watch the options move with RIMM. This will include Delta, Theta, Gamma, and Vega. By the end of the week we will have a little understanding about RIMM option contracts that we never had before.
For clarification following is a breakdown of premiums from Friday to today on all the options that we observed. Just to make it interesting, I will post these into strangle pairs.
Friday: Oct 100 put=$2.30 Oct. 105 call=$2.75 combination=$5.05
Monday: Oct 100 put=$3.15 Oct 105 call= $1.50 Combination=$4.65
Friday: Oct. 95 put=$.95 Oct.110 call=$1.20 Combination= $2.15
Monday: Oct. 95 put=$1.35 Oct.110 call=$.55 Combination=$1.90
Friday: Oct. 90 put=$.35 Oct.115 call=$.50 Combination=$.85
Monday: Oct. 90 put=$.55 Oct. 115 call=$.20 Combination=$.75
Friday: Nov. 100 put=$3.95 Nov. 105 call=$4.60 Combination=$8.55
Monday: Nov. 100 put=$4.95 Nov.105 call=$3.35 Combination=$8.30
Friday: Nov. 95 put=$2.20 Nov.110 call=$2.75 Combination=$4.95
Monday: Nov. 95 put=$2.85 Nov.110 call=$1.90 Combination=$4.75
Friday: Nov. 90 put=$1.20 Nov. 115 call= $1.60 Combination= $2.80
Monday: Nov. 90 put=$1.55 Nov. 115 call=$1.00 Combination= $2.55
As we observe options, I want you to take a look at what happens as the stock moves. We will see some increase in IV. We will observe about five stocks with the corresponding option contracts going into earning. This observation will be 2 weeks prior to the earnings announcement. If you want to study these posts, you will become a very knowledgeable person in options.
Good luck investors
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