Thursday, October 12, 2006

Is Google's Youtube purchase and indication of a great Q3

As many people know, Google purchased Youtube. Hernry Blodget indicated in his blog that the acceptance of stock by Youtube and Sequoia Capitol was a bearish indicator for Google's 3rd quarter earnings.

http://internet.seekingalpha.com/article/18152

Henry Blodget had some good points. I do think that both Youtube and Sequoia most likely like the business model or they wouldn't accept Google stock.
..................However............................ ..

I do not think it in any way portends anything for Q3 earnings. The deal plain and simple has not been consummated yet.

We as investors look for a mechanism to allow us to know something that hasn't already happened. We could say aha looks like GOOG is going to massively beat because.......

What happens if we are wrong? Well we loose money. What GOOG will earn is not currently transparent. With the current history of GOOG's earnings, a very good quarter could be announced. However the two events are independent of one another.

I guess, if we take Blodget's word for it, we can blame him if we loose money. I am in no way trying to berate Mr. Blodget. I like many things that he says. I think the line of thinking in the aforementioned article could be disastrous to the investor.

If anyone is planning on speculating through Google's earnings, I would say don't. I am not saying that it is wrong to invest in Google. Just don't make assumptions that very well could be wrong. The plain fact of the matter is.....Without any guidance there is no way to know what is going to happen. All we can do is guess. Study and use prudence when you invest.

Good luck investors

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